The impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intake and disease risk

In 2022, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended that the Scottish Government encourage a 20% reduction in meat consumption by 2030, increasing to 35% by 2050, along with a 20% reduction in dairy consumption by 2030. 

Recognizing the nutrient density of many animal-source foods, Food Standards Scotland (FSS) commissioned the University of Edinburgh to examine whether this reduction in meat and dairy consumption could be achieved without compromising nutrient adequacy and health outcomes in Scotland. The resulting study used data from the 2021 Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) of 3,447 adults (age 16+) to model the effects of the CCC targets on total meat and dairy consumption as well as 23 reduction scenarios for red and processed red meat and dairy. 

Baseline nutrient intake and nutritional status

Baseline data indicated that dairy and meat were consumed daily by 99% and 86% of participants, respectively. The most consumed dairy products were milk (67%), cheese (14%), and yogurt (9%) while the top meats consumed were poultry (37%), pork (34%), and beef (25%). Importantly, the authors also noted prevalent micronutrient deficiencies at baseline, with more than 40% of the population across all age groups and genders having selenium and zinc intakes falling below the Reference Nutrient Intake (RNI). Additionally, over 40% of the adult population fell below the RNI for calcium and iron (except men aged 35+), as well as for iodine (except men aged 75+).

Results following a reduction in meat and dairy

Nutrient inadequacy

Considering that meat and dairy are top contributors of many of these commonly deficient nutrients, uninformed reductions of these food groups are likely to increase the risk of micronutrient deficiencies.

Following a 35% reduction in all meats and a 20% reduction in all dairy (without replacements), the percent of the population falling below the RNI increased as follows: 

• ↑8 percentage points (pp) for calcium (from 46% to 54%)
• ↑3 pp for iron (from 58% to 61%)
• ↑10 pp for iodine (from 56% to 66%)
• ↑3 pp for selenium (90% to 93%)
• ↑12 pp for zinc (62% to 74%)
• ↑4 pp for vitamin B12 (8% to 12%)

The study also assessed the impact of reducing red meat and red processed meat intake to ≤70 g/day among high consumers, an existing sustainable development goal (SDG). With 72% of the Scottish population already reaching this goal, this reduction would only impact 28% of the population. When this SDG was reached alongside a 20% reduction in dairy intake, inadequacy rates were slightly lowered, with the exception of calcium inadequacy which remained unchanged. Modelling suggested that strategic, careful substitutions could help mitigate the negative impacts of reducing meat and dairy. For example, replacing 16-35% of red and processed meat with pulses, legumes, or vegetables could slightly increase the percentage of adults meeting the SDGs for fruits and vegetables, fats, carbohydrates, and sodium. 

In light of these findings, to reduce the prevalence of inadequacies, the authors conclude that “the 20% reduction in all meat can be achieved by cutting intakes of high consumers of red and red processed meat only” and note that “there is currently no health basis for recommending any reduction in dairy intake”, with the exception of making informed choices when it comes to the fat, sugar, and sodium content of milk products. 

Health outcomes

Small reductions in BMI (∼1%), new CVD cases (∼1%), type 2 diabetes onset (∼5%), and prevented deaths (337) were predicted as a result of a decrease of daily red meat intake to 70 g/day among high consumers (analyzed over a 10-year period). These results remained comparable when dairy consumers also reduced dairy intake, though the report does not clarify whether any of these differences are statistically significant.

Concluding remarks

The report found that a 20% reduction in meat intake can be achieved by only targeting high consumers of red and processed red meat, which limited nutrient inadequacies while having modest benefits on disease risk. Importantly, the authors highlight the absence of health data supporting a reduction in all dairy intake, beyond making informed choices.   

These results also underscore the high prevalence of baseline micronutrient inadequacies and an overall poor diet quality in the Scottish population. The authors note that since most adults are not currently consuming a balanced diet at baseline, meat and dairy “are therefore relatively more important in the diet as important sources of micronutrients”, which is supported by the study findings generally indicating worsened inadequacies when their intakes are reduced.   

The authors note study limitations including validity of self-reported intakes, as well as the ungeneralizable nature of the results to children. Additionally, it is important to note that consumer behaviour change based solely on advice may not effectively address dietary inadequacies, especially without adequate support and access to healthier food options.